As of the end of October, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had reached new highs; 30-year mortgage rates hit their lowest point in over a year; inflation ticked up slightly to 3%; and the Fed made its second .25% reduction of its benchmark rate in 2025 (while cautioning that another reduction in December was not certain). General consumer confidence remained low, with significant unease regarding personal finances, job security and inflation – though affluent consumers enjoying substantial stock market gains were less worried. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index continued to decline from its tariff-shock peak in April but remained high by long-term norms.
The San Francisco real estate market continues to rapidly accelerate due to the AI startup boom: October’s sales hit the highest count since May 2022, while luxury home sales were the best in 4 years. The number of price reductions plummeted 46% on a year-over-year basis, while the pending ratio – a standard measure of market heat – hit its highest monthly reading since the peak of the pandemic boom. 80% of house sales and 44% of condo sales sold for over list price. Virtually all the market indicators point to a dramatic increase in buyer demand competing for a declining number of listings.
The market typically slows from mid-November to mid-January, though it’s possible that this year will buck that trend. In any case, listing and sales activity continue in every month of the year – however, mid-winter is usually the period when buyers can negotiate most aggressively on unsold homes listed earlier in the year.
Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.
Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.
Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.
