The January sales statistics illustrated in this report mostly reflect the very slow holiday market of December and early January when the offers were negotiated and accepted, which is why January typically sees very low sales volumes – often the lowest of the year – and weaker demand stats. These can be expected to shift rapidly in coming months.
Though county inventory levels are running higher than the extremely low counts of 2023-2024, they remain very low by normal long-term standards and in comparison to buyer demand.
Spring is typically the most active selling season of the year: This is illustrated in almost all the standard measures of supply and demand. (Last year, this seasonal dynamic had the wind sucked out of it by the tariff shock.) In the Bay Area, the “spring” market often begins in February.
Interest rates are near multi-year lows and stock markets, though recently volatile, remain at or not too far off all-time highs. The AI boom continues to inject enormous wealth into Silicon Valley and San Francisco. Though national consumer confidence remains low and employment concerns continue, they don’t appear to be seriously impacting the Bay Area. As has been the case in the past 2 years, more affluent buyers seem poised to play an outsized role in demand, and Santa Clara is home to many of the most affluent communities in the country. With these factors in mind, and barring new political/economic shocks, we currently anticipate an early and heated spring market.
