November 2020 Report Focusing Mostly
on City Market Dynamics
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The long-term median sales price chart below is similar to those for counties around the Bay Area – a significant spike in median house prices since the pandemic struck in early spring. (Bay Area condo markets have not seen comparable increases in prices.)
As mentioned before, recent jumps in median house prices have been driven not only by appreciation in fair market values, but by large increases in expensive home sales. Affluent buyers have made up a significantly larger percentage of Bay Area home purchases since the pandemic hit.
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The market typically starts a big slowdown in mid-November, running through the mid-winter holidays, until it begins to wake up in mid-January: New listings and sales plummet, and listings pulled off the market soar. Higher-price segments normally see the most dramatic plunges in mid-winter activity.
This year, the pandemic upended seasonality: Spring, usually the strongest selling season, saw a crash in activity; summer, which typically slows down – especially for luxury home sales – saw extremely high demand, particularly at the high end; and the heated summer market ran right into autumn, with most county markets generally unfazed by the terrible fires.
We suspect late Q4 will see a slowdown, but remain more active than in past years.
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Luxury Home Sales by Month
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Following is a series of analyses that look at city sales volumes and median sales prices, luxury home sales, listings for sale, and a few standard measurements of supply and demand.
Following the city charts is a table with San Jose neighborhood statistics.
Note that very expensive homes often see softer supply and demand dynamics – the pool of buyers is much smaller, and overpricing more common for these very special properties – but this is not always the case.
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Regarding the next chart: Percentages of 50% or more would typically be considered to reflect a high-demand market. Over 60% signifies very high demand, or as it climbs, extremely high demand.
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Source: Compass
It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.