“Stanford Circle Cities” Real Estate Trends, February 2022

2022 Begins with Mixed Economic Indicators

2021 was one of the most frenzied real estate markets ever, with buyer demand far exceeding the supply of listings available to buy — and all the usual indicators, including home price appreciation trends, reflected this severe imbalance. As is the normal seasonal trend, listing and offer activity dropped substantially mid- November through early January, resulting in very low sales volume in the year’s first month.

As of 2/3/22, mortgage interest rates have risen 14% in 2022, putting them 34% above the low 1 year ago. Inflation is at a 40-year high, and the Fed plans to make major changes to its interest-rate policies and its interventions in the economy generally. Consumer confidence has been dropping, and financial markets have seen considerable turbulence in the new year. Geopolitical risks of major-power conflict appear to be rising.

On the other hand, employment, GDP, and household-wealth indicators are quite positive; by historical standards, interest rates remain very low and stock markets very high; COVID infections are falling. The Bay Area is home to many of the world’s most innovative and successful companies; there is an enormous concentration of local wealth; and a staggering amount of money sloshing around the economy looking for somewhere to invest. Many believe real estate to be an excellent hedge against inflation, and an excellent long-term investment generally (heightened by tax advantages).

In the Bay Area, real estate market indicators remain very strong: demand for homes still very high, inventory still very low. So far, buyers do not seem to be significantly rattled by stock market gyrations, and increasing interest rates may be motivating some to buy sooner than later. As the new year wakes up, a common dynamic in heated markets is for buyers to jump back in much faster than sellers: Demand outpaces supply right from the start, with all the usual results (multiple offers, overbidding, fast sales), even as the number of new listings starts climbing. This describes 2022 to date, but more will be known once the spring selling season — typically the biggest of the year — really gets underway. (In the Bay Area, the “spring” market can begin in February.)

As an aside: Compared to the general market, luxury home buyers tend to be less sensitive to interest rate movements, but more sensitive to turbulence and uncertainty in financial markets.

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

“Stanford Circle Cities” Real Estate Trends, January 2022

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco County Real Estate, November 2021

As the year begins to wind down and move into the mid-winter holidays, the market typically slows down as well: The number of new listings declines, to finally plunge in December, with sales volume following one step behind. Price reductions often jump, and some listings, especially of more expensive homes, are pulled off the market until the market wakes up in the new year – usually in late January or February depending on the weather and other factors. Of course, buying and selling occur at all times of the year, including in mid-winter, but commonly at a much reduced rate. Note that typical market seasonality was often upended in 2020 due to the pandemic; more normal seasonal trends seem to have returned in 2021.

For buyers, the coming months can offer substantial opportunities in the form of reduced competition, fewer multiple offers, less overbidding, more room to negotiate, and often significantly better deals. This is an excellent time for buyers to take a second look at listings that haven’t sold, and to make aggressive offers.

This report will review home prices appreciation by property type in selected city neighborhoods, supply and demand dynamics as illustrated by a variety of statistical measures, luxury home sales, and a survey of selected macroeconomic indicators.

The following chart reviews approximate media house sales price changes since 1990, breaking down percentage ups and downs during periods such as the dotcom era, the subprime bubble, the recent high-tech boom, and the pandemic. Readings on the chart refer not to specific prices, but to the Q1 2000 median sales price, assigned a value of 100: A reading of 180 signifies the median house price has increased by 80% since Q1 2000.

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco County Real Estate, October 2021

After cooling and slowing in summer from its peak during the super-heated spring selling season – Q2 to Q3 cooling is a typical seasonal trend – the early autumn rebound began with a surge of new listings in September. A rush of autumn sales commonly ensues, before the market slows way down for the mid-winter holidays.

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

“Stanford Circle Cities” Real Estate Trends, July 2021

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco County Real Estate, July 2021

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

“Stanford Circle Cities” Real Estate Trends, June 2021

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco County Real Estate, June 2021

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco 2-4 Units July 2020

It had already been a challenging couple of years for San Francisco landlords, with political developments regarding sales, evictions and rent control coming into effect, seemingly one after another – but COVID-19 is a health and economic crisis of another magnitude. Mass unemployment hits the city’s rental market extremely hard: Tenants paying the highest rents in the country often move quickly if their jobs are lost. The crisis has left many existing tenants unable to pay their rent, and new rules have severely limited landlords’ legal options, though some of those are now being challenged in court. Market rent rates have been dropping and vacancy rates increasing, in a manner reminiscent of the period after the dotcom collapse, another time of sudden, high unemployment.

With all this occurring, it is not surprising that sales activity for multi-family income properties has plunged in the last quarter, and to a large degree, we have little choice but to wait for the situation to settle and clarify. Shelter in place rules make it virtually impossible to show occupied units. With reduced sales volume, it becomes more difficult to reliably assess market values, but so far, there has been no precipitous drop. Even with rent declines, occupied apartments generate high income streams, and interest rates have hit all-time lows. And, of course, vacant units in smaller buildings often appeal to owner-occupier buyers. Though COVID-19 has temporarily affected many of the things that residents love so much about the city, San Francisco remains a financial, technology and cultural capital.

Long-term investors who have avoided over-leveraging their properties have ridden out several economic crises over the last 30 years and will do so again. There will almost certainly be opportunities for savvy buyers.

 

Supply & Demand Indicators
by Month or Quarter

Sales Breakdowns – 12 Months of Sales

2-Unit Building Values

(Not enough 3-4 unit building sales in

Q2 for reliable analysis)

Market Rate Rent Trends

Market Share by Broker

Sales Breakdowns – 12 Months of Sales

2-Unit Building Values

(Not enough 3-4 unit building sales in

Q2 for reliable analysis)

Market Rate Rent Trends

Market Share by Broker

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco-Tables Condo-Co Op Neighborhood BR-Count Price

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.