San Francisco Real Estate, August 2020

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco Residential July 2020

San Francisco Real Estate Market  Rebounds Dramatically

Median house sales price hits new monthly high

July 2020 report

Despite the ongoing health and economic crisis precipitated by COVID-19, the SF real estate market made a large recovery from the steep declines in March and April. The SF median house price hit a new monthly high in June ($1,800,000), and high-end houses, in particular, have seen very strong demand – this applies to virtually every market in the Bay Area. More affluent buyers – the demographic least affected by COVID-19, unemployment, and also having the greatest financial resources – have been jumping back into the market to a greater degree than other segments.

The condo market has been weaker than the house market, as measured by both supply and demand metrics and median sales price. It may be that prospective condo buyers – often younger and less affluent than house owners – have been more affected by the huge jump in unemployment.

The first chart below illustrates the big rebound in buyer demand, as the number of listings accepting offers in June 2020 rose slightly higher on a year-over-year basis. Of course, closed-sales volume – a lagging indicator – was hammered in Q2 by shelter in place.

High-end sales staged a particularly strong recovery,  reaching a new high as a percentage of total sales. This is one of the factors behind the median house sales price hitting a new peak in June.

As illustrated below, the house market (blue line) has performed much better than the condo market (purple line).

Three angles on median home sales price movements – annual, monthly and quarterly. While the median house price has hit a new peak, the median condo price has declined from its 2019 high.

Average days on market remained relatively low in Q2, though higher than Q2 in 2018 and 2019.

The average overbidding percentage declined to zero in Q2 as showing procedures and the offer-making process have been severely affected by shelter in place.

The Bay Area markets with the largest year-over-year increases in the number of listings accepting offers in June 2020 were the 4 outer Bay Area counties of Monterey (up 61%), Santa Cruz (58%), Sonoma (47%) and Napa (37%). They also have among the lowest population densities in the Bay Area. The more urban counties saw more modest y-o-y increases: San Francisco (6%) and Alameda (7%). Other factors may play a role in this: length/strictness of shelter-in-place rules, home price differences, second-home buying patterns, and so on.

 

A review of annual and 2020 YTD median home sales prices in some of the largest districts in San Francisco. Changes in median sales price are not perfect indicators of changes in fair market value, as it can be affected by a number of other factors.

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Update

A Compass Review for the San Francisco Metro Area, June 30, 2020

 

The Index is published 2 months after the month delineated – the new April 2020 index was released 6/30/20 – and reflects a 3-month rolling calculation,and one month’s sales generally reflect accepted-offer activity in the previous month. Thus, the Index is looking into a rear-view mirror at the market 3 to 5 months ago. So far, the Index is not showing any negative effects on home prices from the COVID-19 crisis that began to seriously affect Bay Area home markets in mid-March with the imposition of shelter in place rules.

The Corelogic S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index does not evaluate median sales price changes, but employs its own proprietary algorithm to measure home price appreciation over time. Since its indices cover large areas with hundreds of communities of widely varying home values, the C-S chart numbers do not refer to specific prices, but instead reflect prices as compared to those prevailing in January 2000, all designated as having a consistent value of 1 00. A reading of 250 signifies that home prices in the area and segment being measured have appreciated 150% above the price prevailing in January 2000.

The 5 counties in the Case-Shiller San Francisco Metro Statistical Area are San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Alameda and Contra Costa. (Alameda and Contra Costa have by far the greatest numbers of house sales being analyzed.) The Index trend lines, in their ups and downs, generally apply well to other Bay Area counties, such as Santa Clara and Sonoma. In northern California, Case-Shiller only tracks prices for the 5 counties of the SF Metro Area. C-S calculations are huge generalities.

Case-Shiller divides all the house sales into thirds, or tiers:The third of sales with the lowest prices is the low-price tier; the third of sales with the highest sales prices is the high-price tier; and the third in between is the mid-price. The price ranges of these tiers change as the market changes. The 3 price tiers experienced dramatically different bubbles, crashes and recoveries over the past 18+ years, to a large degree determined by how badly the tier was affected by the subprime financing crisis. The low price tier was worst affected – huge bubble, huge crash, most dramatic recovery – and the high-price least affected (but still significantly so). However, in the last 4 years, the low- and mid-price tiers have seen appreciation rates accelerating above that of the high-price tier.

Most house sales in the more affluent Bay Areas communities are in the “high price tier,” and many would qualify for an “ultra-high­ price tier,” if such existed. However,all counties, to varying degrees,have sales in all 3 price tiers.

There are hundreds of unique real estate markets and segments in such a broad region, with different dynamics, moving at varying speeds, sometimes in different directions. How the C-S Index applies to any particular property is impossible to know without a specific
comparative market analysis. * https://my.spindices.com/index-family/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/sp-corel ogic-case-shiller-composite

 

San Francisco Real Estate, June 2020

Supply & demand statistics, median sales price trends, sales and values by city district, the luxury home market, and the ongoing effects of COVID-19

Generally speaking, market activity – as measured by the number of listings going into contract -continued to pick up rapidly in May, bouncing back from the steep plunge following the first shelter in place orders. However, activity in May, which is typically among the busiest selling months of the year, remained well below May 2019. Still, with the easing of shelter in place, as well as the market leaming to adjust to new circumstances, it is expected the recovery will continue to surge closer to normal. In fact, based on the strength of buyer demand, some analysts believe the coming months may be busier than in 2019, as sales activity that would have occurred in spring gets pushed into the summer instead. Interest rates hit yet another historic low at the end of May.

Note: Any statistics derived from closed sales – such as median sales prices, sales volume and days on market -reflect the state of the market 3·6 weeks ago when the offers were negotiated and accepted. They are lagging indicators, and May sales data to a large degree reflects the much softer market in April.

MLS reported data. last month’s data estimated using available data, and may change with late reported activity. Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. Many factors affect sales prices besides neighborhood/ bedroom count: quality of location within the neighborhood, condition, size, architecture, views, amenities, parking, outdoor space, etc.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position,but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements  regarding  any references to the laws, statutes or regulations  of any state are those of  the author(s).  Past performance is no guarantee  of future  results.

San Francisco Real Estate: Coronavirus Update, May 2020

San Francisco Real Estate Market – Begins to Slowly Recover

 

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. Many factors affect sales prices besides neighborhood/ bedroom count: quality of location within the neighborhood, condition, size, architecture, views, amenities, parking, outdoor space, etc.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position,but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements  regarding  any references to the laws, statutes or regulations  of any state are those of  the author(s).  Past performance is no guarantee  of future  results.

 

San Francisco Multi-Family Residential Market, Q1 2020

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco 2-4 Unit Multi-Family Market, April 2020

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco Real Estate, March 2020

There is a lot going on in the world right now and we won’t pretend to know how things will turn out or affect the local real estate market over the next few months. In the meantime, this report will look at the most recent data available, though the impact of the wild volatility in the financial markets and the unfolding situation with the coronavirus has yet to show up in reliable statistics. Typically, the spring selling season is the most active of the year.

One positive for real estate is that mortgage interest rates hit a historic low in early March, as illustrated below, and rates play a huge role in housing affordability.

Short-Term & Long-Term Trends

in Median Home Sales Prices

Median Dollar per Square Foot Values

 

Mortgage Interest Rates Hit New All-Time Low

 

Home Sales Breakdown

 

Listing Inventory vs. Sales since 2005

 

Trends in Overbidding Asking Price

 

Overbidding remains common and at high levels for house listings in particular, however part of this is due strategic under-pricing on the part of listing agents. The supply and demand dynamic for condos has been affected over the last few years by new-condo inventory coming on market.

 

The Extreme Seasonality of Real Estate Markets

 

After the mid-winter doldrums, we would typically start seeing a huge jump in sales as the spring market gets underway. Remember that sales are about a month behind the market, i.e. sales in one month mostly reflect new listings and offers accepted in the previous month.

 

Home Sales & Values by San Francisco District

 

District Home Price Trends

 

There are 70+ neighborhoods in ten Realtor districts in San Francisco – too many to cover in one newsletter. Below are some representative snapshots, but we also have trend data on every neighborhood in the city, which can be supplied upon request.

 

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco 5+ Unit Apartment Building Market, January 2020

 

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco 2-4 Unit Multi-Family Market, January 2020

 

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. Many factors affect sales prices besides neighborhood/ bedroom count: quality of location within the neighborhood, condition, size, architecture, views, amenities, parking, outdoor space, etc.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position,but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements  regarding  any references to the laws, statutes or regulations  of any state are those of  the author(s).  Past performance is no guarantee  of future  results.