Driven by both pandemic-related issues, and surging household wealth among the affluent, Bay Area luxury home sales rose dramatically in the second half of 2020, and then skyrocketed in 2021. This report focuses on sales and values by county, broad Bay Area trends in supply and demand, the effects of seasonality on activity, and a few macroeconomic snapshots. Spring is typically the biggest selling season — or spring/summer in counties with large second-home markets (Napa, Sonoma, Monterey, Santa Cruz). Currently, the usual, early-spring acceleration is well under way in new listings coming on market and the number of homes going into contract.

So far, the luxury market appears largely unfazed by the economic and political volatility that has characterized the beginning of 2022. Though some buyers and sellers have paused their plans, awaiting more clarity in recent developments, the prevailing dynamic remains one of high demand and historically low supply — which doesn’t mean that every home, no matter the price, sells quickly. (The luxury market, characterized by stunning homes and spectacular estates, is often more susceptible to overpricing than less expensive segments.) As a general rule, affluent buyers are less concerned with interest rate changes and more sensitive to financial markets, though the 2 are often interrelated. Spring sales data will soon provide more substantial indications of market direction.

In this report, considering differences in county values, the luxury segment is defined as including homes of $4 million+ in San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo & Santa Clara Counties; $3 million+ in Alameda, Contra Costa & Monterey; $2.5 million+ in Santa Cruz; and $2 million+ in Napa & Sonoma Counties. These price thresholds are very broad generalities, and what one gets for however many millions of dollars in any specific city, town or neighborhood varies enormously: In home and lot size (or acreage/vineyards); architecture and condition; home technology; views; privacy; decks, pools, tennis courts and landscaping; wine cellars, media rooms, security and 3+ car garages; access to open space, beaches, golf courses, good schools and shopping; and many other circumstances and amenities. In real estate, and especially the luxury home market, the devil is always in the details.

Per listings and sales posted to NorCal MLS Alliance — not all listings/sales are posted. Report was created in good faith using data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and all numbers are approximate. Data may change due to late-reported sales.

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.