How America’s Current Deficit May Impact Interest Rates

At the end of this spring, the average US rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.23%, the lowest ever recorded by Freddie Mac in a series that goes back to 1971. At the beginning of June, the rate had climbed to just 3.61%.
The question now is: How long will these historic lows exist?
The Drivers Of Interest Rates
It all depends on the inflation rate, or the main driver of interest rates. As in the case of the 30-year mortgage rate, the US economy is experiencing the lowest inflation period in decades.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, FRED
Inflation is the increase in the prices of goods and services over time, and is primarily driven by four factors:
  • A Growing Economy
A strong and expanding economy usually means that people can get better jobs, make more money, and thus spend more. 
  • Expected/Built-In Inflation
Rising prices cause consumers to expect inflation. Consumers may choose to spend more now, instead of in the future to avoid higher costs. Expected or built-in inflation boosts economic growth even more.
  • Discretionary Fiscal Policy
Inflation is impacted when the government spends more or taxes less. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the most recent stimulus bills in response to the pandemic are prime examples.
  • Excess of Money Supply
The money supply increases through either expansionary fiscal policy or expansionary monetary policy. The money supply not only includes cash, but also debt such as credit, loans, and mortgages.
The Influence Of Policy & Supply
While COVID-19 has hit the brakes on the US economy and pushed the unemployment rate to its highest level (13.3%) since the Great Depression and the annual inflation rate down to just 0.1% (May 2020), fiscal and monetary policy present a growing concern and could push interest rates higher.
Forced to stimulate the economy, the government’s 2020 budget deficit is projected to reach $3.8 trillion (another historical record), pushing the national debt to a level higher than the record set just after World War II.
COVID-19 has also exposed the vulnerabilities of complex global supply chains. This has been particularly true in the healthcare sector, where the scramble for protective equipment has laid bare the inherent risks of inventory and single-sourcing models driven exclusively by cost control.
The impact of China’s lockdown and its dominance in key areas of manufacturing have further highlighted the problem with modern supply chains. When Chinese factories closed, manufacturers struggled to pivot due to a lack of flexibility in their supplier base. One likely consequence is that global firms will diversify their supply chains in the future, instead of relying only on China.
Future Projections
We may also see a decentralization of manufacturing capacity, with companies looking to bring production home. While these moves will help correct some of the vulnerabilities of global supply chains, should US manufacturers bring some of their production home, the country’s higher labor costs will mean higher inflation which will increase interest rates.
Adding to these concerns is a renewed push to privatize Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae; the government-sponsored agencies created to provide liquidity to the mortgage market. While the proposal still has a long way to go, if successful, it would result in higher loan fees and higher interest rates.
Can We Help?
With current rates at historical lows and an uncertain future ahead, it may be the best moment for you to refinance or purchase a new home.
Julie and her team are ready to help. With two decades of experience, expert market insight, and access to a qualified network of mortgage lenders, our team will ensure the success of your next move.
Please contact Julie at 650.799.8888 or Julie@JulieTsaiLaw.com to schedule a free consultation.

Should You Use Cash Or Home Equity

Looking for options to purchase your move-up home? Using your cash reserves to make the down payment on a new home versus funding it through an equity loan (insert link to “Move-Up Buyers, Using Your Home Equity To Move Up) on your primary residence is a matter of the cost of opportunity.

So, if there are investment alternatives out there for your cash which offer a higher real return than the prevailing mortgage rate, it would make numerical sense to invest your cash elsewhere and leverage your home equity to fund the new purchase.

Why Use Cash?

Keep in mind that not investing your cash (basically keeping it in the bank) has a cost as well – the cost of inflation, which reduces the purchasing power of cash over time. Currently that cost, in the U.S., is 2.5% per year. A real return is calculated by subtracting the prevailing annual inflation rate (2.5%) from the nominal return offered by the different investment options available. For instance, if you invested your cash today (3.17) in 30-year Treasury Bonds, the nominal rate of return would be 1.56% per year. 

However, your real return, after subtracting inflation, would be negative 0.94%. Therefore, since the current home equity loan interest rate is higher (5.5% as of 3.17), it makes financial sense to use your cash reserves to make as high a down payment as possible on a new home.

Making a higher down payment—20% plus—not only will lower your monthly mortgage payment but save you up to 1% per year on private mortgage insurance, which lenders require for loans with less than 20% down.

Alternative Options

Homeowners with little cash reserves but substantial holdings in the stock and/or bond markets—either owned outright or through a 401k plan—often wonder if it’s smart to liquidate their portfolio or borrow against it to fund the purchase of a home.

While such decision is one you should consult directly with your investment and tax advisors, the following are options to leverage your portfolio:

  • Investment portfolio as collateral

You can borrow against your stock portfolio by taking out a securities-based line of credit or SBLOC. A typical SBLOC agreement permits you to borrow from 50 to 95% of the value of the assets in your investment account, depending on the value of your overall holdings and the types of assets in the account. SBLOCs generally allow you to borrow as little as $100,000 and up to $5 million. Click here for more information.

 

  • 410(k) loans

Technically, 401(k) loans are not true loans because they do not involve either a lender or an evaluation of your credit history. They are more accurately described as the ability to access a portion of your own retirement plan money—usually up to $50,000 or 50% of the assets, whichever is less—on a tax-free basis. Conventional wisdom advises against withdrawing funds from your 401(k) early; however, borrowing from yourself is different from withdrawing funds permanently and does not incur the same tax penalties as withdrawing funds. If you fail to repay your loan within the allotted timeframe, however, it will be treated as a taxable withdrawal.

Can We Help?

Be sure to consult with both your financial and tax advisors before choosing between a HELOC and a home equity loan. If needed, Julie and our team can provide you with the right references to guide you through the different options available to fund the purchase of a new home.

Then, when you’re ready to move up, you can rely on our experience to help you find and purchase your next home. For more information on how we can best help you with your home-buying goals, please contact Julie at 650.799.8888 or Julie@JulieTsaiLaw.com to schedule a free consultation.

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