Tag: San Francisco County

San Francisco County Real Estate, February 2023

Posted on by Julie Tsai

Early 2023 Data Suggests Buyers Are Beginning to Jump Back In

December is typically the month that sees the year’s lowest level of deal-making activity – i.e. listings accepting offers (going into contract) – which leads to January usually posting the lowest monthly number of closed sales. (Sales typically close 3 to 6 weeks after going into contract.) In the 11-county, greater Bay Area, accepted-offer activity in December 2022 and closed sales volume in January 2023 generally hit their lowest monthly points in 15 years.

Typically, after the long holiday slowdown, the market just begins to wake up in mid-January before accelerating into spring. That being said, inflation has dropped substantially since June and interest rates since November, home prices are well down from last spring, stock markets are up 8% (S&P) to 15% (Nasdaq) YTD as of 2/3/23 (albeit with continuing volatility), and despite escalating layoffs in high tech, early indications in 2023 point to rebounding buyer demand. Open house traffic has jumped, more buyers are requesting listing disclosure packages, and there have been increasing reports of multiple offers and (often unexpected) overbidding of asking price. Based on this preliminary data (much of it still anecdotal*), it appears that buyer demand severely repressed by economic conditions in the 2nd half of 2022 has begun to bounce back.

A similar rebound began in mid-late summer 2022 for similar reasons – a significant drop in mortgage rates and a large rise in stock markets – which then quickly faded when positive economic developments went into reverse. Market activity then slowed further through the rest of 2022. There are currently considerable hopes for a more lasting economic recovery in 2023.

During the long high-tech and pandemic housing boom – which peaked in April/May 2022 – as each new year began, the classic dynamic was for buyers to jump back into the market much more quickly than sellers, creating an immediate imbalance between supply and demand. Too few new listings compared to the quantity of motivated buyers sparked often ferocious bidding wars, leading to considerable home price gains virtually every spring. It is too early to conclude, after the general price declines and steep drops in market activity seen in the 2nd half of 2022, that a sustained recovery in market conditions is now underway, and if it is, how quickly it will develop and its impact on prices in 2023. Many economic conditions remain challenging – with critical indicators still much weaker on a year-over-year basis – and forecasts by economists and analysts vary widely. Hopefully, economic conditions will continue to improve, providing the foundation for the recovery in real estate. In the meantime, preliminary indicators are surprisingly positive, and the CEO of Compass recently stated his belief that Q4 2022 saw the bottom of the market.

The “spring market,” which can begin as early as February in the Bay Area, is typically the biggest selling season of the year, especially for luxury homes, and more data regarding new listings coming on market, listings going into contract, sales volumes, speed of sale, overbidding and sales prices will soon become available.*

* Most “hard” data in real estate is based on closed, recorded sales, a lagging indicator which generally reflects deal-making activity in the previous month, when offers were negotiated. January sales, the basis for many analyses in this report, mostly reflect the December 2022 market when new listing activity and buyer demand were typically at their lowest ebb in years. February and March listing and sales data will begin to better reflect early 2023 conditions.

Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate, and may change with late-reported activity.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco 2-4 Units, January 2023

Posted on by Julie Tsai

The San Francisco rental property market continued to be affected by general economic factors, such as interest rates and financial markets, as well as issues more specific to the city, such as tech lay-offs, work from home, social issues such as homelessness, the (still) high cost of housing relative to other regions, and half-empty office buildings. Weekly office attendance in the multi-county San Francisco Metro Area is more than 50% below pre-pandemic levels, a major factor in demand for rental apartments. In the space of less than 3 years, San Francisco has gone from one of the strongest office markets in the world to one of the weakest, impacting the downtown rental market the most. Employment has mostly recovered from the huge, initial pandemic plunge, but remains down by about 16,500 workers, reflecting a decline in the city’s population. The unemployment rate is close to historic lows.

In the second half of 2022, sales volumes and values dropped in the residential income segment, paralleling similar changes in the general residential market. However, hundreds of apartment buildings continued to change hands, as buyers sought out good values and premium properties. Correct pricing is more important than ever. Average asking rents climbed in the first half of 2022, but declined in the second – ending up a little higher than where the year began, but still well down from early 2020.

Data reported to regional MLS associations. Q4 2022 numbers are estimates using data available in early January 2023: Late reported sales may alter these numbers. Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. How these figures apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Note that the quantity of sales in any given local submarket is usually relatively small and/or the number of sales that report the necessary financial information can be limited. Buildings of different ages, qualities and sizes selling in different periods can cause these average and median figures to fluctuate significantly. Furthermore, the reliability of some of these calculations depends upon the quality of the income and expense figures provided by the listing agents, and sometimes instead of actual numbers, much less meaningful projected or scheduled figures are used. Therefore, the above statistics should be considered very general indicators, and how they apply to any particular property without a specific comparative market analysis is unknown.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and all numbers should be considered approximate.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco County Real Estate, January 2023

Posted on by Julie Tsai

“Mortgage application activity sunk to a quarter century low this week as high mortgage rates continue to weaken the housing market. While mortgage market activity has significantly shrunk over the last year, inflationary pressures are easing and should lead to lower mortgage rates in 2023. Homebuyers are waiting for rates to decrease more significantly, and when they do, a strong job market and a large demographic tailwind of Millennial renters will provide support to the purchase market.” FHLMC, 1/5/2023

In 2022, the market saw a dramatic shift from Q2 (spring), at which time the market peaked after a dramatic 10-year upcycle supercharged at its end by the pandemic boom, through the 2nd half of the year, when the market cooled significantly. Prompted by a number of economic factors – especially inflation and interest rates, and financial markets – this played out in substantial declines in sales volumes, median sales prices, appreciation rates, and virtually all the standard measurements of buyer demand. However, tens of thousands of Bay Area homes continued to sell in the 2nd half, a considerable, but declining percentage still selling quickly at ov er asking price. On the other hand, some buyers are making the best deals in years. For sellers, pricing, preparation and marketing are now critical, while buyers shouldn’t hesitate to negotiate aggressively, especially on homes with longer days-on-market.

The period from just before Thanksgiving through mid-January usually sees the lowest levels of listing and offer-acceptance activity of the year, so it’s difficult to derive definitive conclusions about market trends from its numbers. The early spring market – which, weather cooperating, can begin as early as February in the Bay Area – would typically provide the next major indicator of market direction, but developments may occur sooner to provide increased clarity regarding what awaits us in 2023. For the time being, the market remains in a period of adjustment, with major macroeconomic conditions still in flux.

This report will look at the market from a variety of angles, including annual, quarterly and monthly data. Because of the large shifts in the market that occurred between the 1st and 2nd halves of the year, annual data will often disguise these changes, blending as it does heated, peak-market data with data in which very different conditions prevailed.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco County Real Estate, December 2022

Posted on by Julie Tsai

The changes in market dynamics that began in late spring/early summer 2022 generally continued in autumn due to the ongoing economic headwinds, including high inflation and interest rates, reduced consumer confidence, and volatile stock markets, though all have fluctuated significantly over the period, and some readings have recently improved. The great majority of indicators – home prices and appreciation rates, sales volumes, overbidding, days-on-market, months supply of inventory, and so on – continue to describe a market that has substantially cooled and “corrected” since spring 2022, when it appears that a long, dramatic, 10-year market upcycle peaked. The correction in San Francisco has been somewhat larger than in other Bay Area counties. (Note that a “correction” is not remotely similar to a crash, such as was seen during the subprime loan/foreclosure crisis.) In recent months, luxury home sales have seen larger year-over-year percentage declines than the general market. But thousands of Bay Area homes continue to sell, some very quickly at over asking price: With the shifts in market conditions, pricing correctly has become an imperative for sellers.

December typically sees the low point of new-listing and sales activity – with an increasing number of homes taken off the market to await the new year – but listing, buying and selling continues. This can be an excellent time for buyers to aggressively negotiate prices, though the supply of listings to choose from declines. The market usually begins to wake up in mid-January and then quickly accelerates in early spring: In the Bay Area, depending on the weather and economic conditions, the “early spring” market can begin as soon as February.

The single, most closely watched factor will be interest rates, since they have such an outsized impact on monthly housing costs and affordability, as well as on stock markets and consumer confidence. At the end of this report is a link to our extended review of macroeconomic issues.

Our reports are not intended to convince you regarding a course of action or to predict the future, but to provide, to the best of our ability, straightforward information and good-faith analysis to assist you in making your own informed decisions. Statistics should be considered very general indicators, and all numbers should be considered approximate. How they apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco County Real Estate, November 2022

Posted on by Julie Tsai

After a brief rebound in market activity in August, pursuant to what turned out to be a very temporary decline in interest rates and an associated rebound in financial markets, macroeconomic conditions shifted again – with interest rates climbing rapidly to a 20-year high – which took a toll on early autumn, Bay Area real estate markets. Though across the Bay Area, thousands of homes continued to be sold – a significant, but declining proportion still selling quickly over list price – the general trend was one of cooling demand, less competition, and declining sales. And, after years of conclusively holding the balance of power, sellers have reacted to the changing circumstances in different ways: Besides increased price reductions since spring, the number of new listings coming on market is well down year over year, and a much higher percentage of listings than normal is being removed from the market without selling. The economy and housing market remain in a period of adjustment, causing many people to be more cautious as they wait to see how things will settle out.

All these factors added up in San Francisco to October 2022 having the lowest number of October home sales since 2011. On a year-over-year basis, higher-price home sales of $3 million+ fell further (-43%) than the general market (-38%) in October.

The market now enters the 2-month holiday period which typically sees the year’s lowest levels of activity: The numbers of new listings and of listings going into contract usually plunge to their annual nadirs, and an increasing percentage of sellers, especially in higher price segments, pull their homes off the market to await the new year. (Many listings taken off market in November and December will presumably be relisted in Q1 2023.) Still, buying and selling continues, though at reduced levels, and this can be an excellent time for buyers to aggressively negotiate prices.

Market dynamics and statistics vary by county, property type and price segment.

Our reports are not intended to convince you regarding a course of action or to predict the future, but to provide, to the best of our ability, straightforward information and good-faith analysis to assist you in making your own informed decisions. Statistics should be considered very general indicators, and all numbers should be considered approximate. How they apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco Bay Area Home Price Appreciation & Market Cycles since 1990 – October 2022

Posted on by Julie Tsai
The early 1990’s recession, the dotcom boom, subprime bubble and crash, market recovery, high-tech boom – and pandemic.

Financial and real estate markets have run in cycles for at least hundreds of years. Though varying in their details, causes and effects, there are many similarities in how they play out, providing greater context to how markets work over time.

Many economic, political, demographic and environmental factors play roles in real estate markets, including interest rates, inflation, financial markets, new wealth creation (or destruction), housing affordability, employment, population migration, governmental economic interventions, national and international crises, financial product engineering and manipulation, runaway speculation, regulation and risk management, tax law, debt, natural disasters, and, as we have recently seen, even pandemics.

Human psychology also plays a defining role, with optimism, confidence, and often, ultimately, “irrational exuberance” fueling upcycles. (“The world is different now. The old rules don’t apply, and these boom times can continue indefinitely.”) Conversely, fear, doubt and pessimism play a role in the shift to, and then underpin down-cycles. (“The housing market probably won’t recover in our lifetimes.”) Whatever the phase of the cycle, people tend to believe it will last forever, but, of course, the nature of cycles is to keep turning.

It is extremely difficult to predict when different parts of a cycle will begin or end. Boom times, even periods of “irrational exuberance,” can go on much longer than expected, or get second winds, with huge jumps in values. On the other hand, negative shocks can appear with startling suddenness, often triggered by unexpected events or factors that affect a variety of economic fundamentals, hammer confidence, and cause shifts into slowdowns, “market corrections” or recessions of varying degrees and duration. These negative adjustments can feel like a switch being flipped, the slow deflation of a tire with a small puncture, or traffic going 120 miles per hour suddenly decelerating. Prices can flatten, adjust 5% to 10%, or, as with the subprime bubble, crash. (The subprime bubble and crash was caused by very unusual circumstances, as discussed later in this report.)

It’s interesting to note that different markets often behaved very differently during the various cycles, depending on the factors at play. As one example, San Francisco’s market was hit hardest after the 1989 earthquake; saw one of the highest appreciation rates during the dotcom boom – and a bigger price drop after it popped; a moderate-sized subprime bubble and crash; very high appreciation after the 2012 recovery and subsequent high-tech boom; but then a relatively low appreciation rate as compared to surrounding counties, after the pandemic hit. In real estate, the devil is always in the details.

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The San Francisco – Smaller Apartment Building Market, October 2022

Posted on by Julie Tsai

As in the general residential market in San Francisco and the Bay Area, the smaller apartment building market in the city saw significant effects on buyer demand and property values in the 3rd quarter from the economic headwinds that have arisen and strengthened since 2022 began: What could best be described as a market correction.

On the positive side, rental rates have continued to slightly improve.

The market is still adjusting to volatile and unsettled economic conditions, and definitive conclusions should not be made based upon a single quarter’s data. The autumn selling season runs until mid-November, when the mid-winter holiday slowdown usually begins.

Data reported to regional MLS associations. Q3 2022 numbers are estimates using data available in early October: Late reported sales may alter these numbers. Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller market segments with fewer sales. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate. How these figures apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Source: Compass

Note that the quantity of sales in any given local submarket is usually relatively small and/or the number of sales that report the necessary financial information can be limited. Buildings of different ages, qualities and sizes selling in different periods can cause these average and median figures to fluctuate significantly. Furthermore, the reliability of some of these calculations depends upon the quality of the income and expense figures provided by the listing agents, and sometimes instead of actual numbers, much less meaningful projected or scheduled figures are used. Therefore, the above statistics should be considered very general indicators, and how they apply to any particular property without a specific comparative market analysis is unknown.

These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. Statistics are generalities and all numbers should be considered approximate.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco County Real Estate, October 2022

Posted on by Julie Tsai

Virtually across the Bay Area, Q3 median sales prices retreated dramatically from their spring peaks. Part of this was due to seasonal trends – median sales prices often peak for the calendar year in Q2, then drop in summer – but part of the decline was clearly due to changing market conditions prompted by shifts in interest rates, inflation, stock markets, and consumer confidence. In this report, home prices will be reviewed from a variety of angles to provide greater context. On the supply and demand side, it appears that after the big drop in demand in early-mid summer, conditions have mostly stabilized: Generally speaking, sales numbers are no longer appreciably dropping, though overbidding statistics continue to decline and days on market to climb.

When looking at recent market changes, it is important to remember how overheated the market was in 2021 and early 2022 – many quarter-to-quarter, and year-over-year comparisons are distorted by the unusual (sometimes frenzied) conditions that prevailed then. It is also wise not to jump to definitive conclusions based upon a single quarter’s data: The economy and real estate market are still in a period of adjustment.

Comparisons with the crash of 2008 continue to be made, but the precipitating factor in the 2008 crash – tens of millions of households talked into home loans they could never afford, forcing a tsunami of frantic sales during the great recession – simply does not apply today. Mortgage payments as a percentage of income, and loan delinquency rates are both close to all-time lows; most homeowners’ mortgages are held at historically low rates. There has been no surge of desperate sellers: New listing numbers are actually down from last year. Stock market declines, though substantial, cannot compare with those seen in 2008-2009, and employment remains very strong. This is not to minimize the correction the market is going through: There are certainly major economic challenges at play right now, but a market correction is not a crash, being more like a slow leak in an over-pressurized tire than a blowout on the highway at high speed.

The relatively short autumn selling season began after Labor Day and runs through mid-November. The midwinter holiday slowdown then runs through mid-January. Though sales continue in every month of the year, listing and sale activity drops dramatically as we near Thanksgiving. Slower markets can offer opportunities to buyers, but the selection of homes for sale usually tumbles.

Our reports are not intended to convince you regarding a course of action or to predict the future, but to provide, to the best of our ability, straightforward information and good-faith analysis to assist you in making your own informed decisions. Statistics should be considered very general indicators, and all numbers should be considered approximate. How they apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco County Real Estate, September 2022

Posted on by Julie Tsai

In early August, we mentioned agents reporting that buyer activity – renewed interest in getting back into the market, visits to open houses, and so on – was picking up due to a number of issues: Price reductions, less competition, an increase in listings for sale, the drop in interest rates, and the dramatic recovery in stock markets. And a sizeable rebound in sales and listings going into contract did show up in August data, though volumes were still well below last year at this time.

Across the Bay Area, since spring, year-over-year, home-price appreciation rates and overbidding statistics have generally plunged, and days-on-market rapidly climbed. In the midst of the prevailing uncertainty, many sellers have pulled back on listing their homes, with the number of new listings coming on market remaining well down year over year. In August, the number of active listings for sale dropped after 6 months of steady gains, but we may see an increase in new listing activity after Labor Day.

As of early September, interest rates have increased again and stock markets declined once more: They continue to see substantial short-term volatility and it remains difficult to confidently predict their future movements and effects on real estate markets. The next major indicator of buyer and seller psychology and market dynamics will be what occurs during the next 2 months of the autumn selling season, prior to the mid-November to mid-January holiday slowdown, typically the slowest market of the year.

Our reports are not intended to convince you regarding a course of action or to predict the future, but to provide, to the best of our ability, straightforward information and good-faith analysis to assist you in making your own informed decisions. Statistics should be considered very general indicators, and all numbers should be considered approximate. How they apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Source: Compass

Statistics are generalities, essentially summaries of widely disparate data generated by dozens, hundreds or thousands of unique, individual sales occurring within different time periods. They are best seen not as precise measurements, but as broad, comparative indicators, with reasonable margins of error. Anomalous fluctuations in statistics are not uncommon, especially in smaller, expensive market segments. Last period data should be considered estimates that may change with late-reported data. Different analytics programs sometimes define statistics – such as “active listings,” “days on market,” and “months supply of inventory” – differently: what is most meaningful are not specific calculations but the trends they illustrate. Most listing and sales data derives from the local or regional multi-listing service (MLS) of the area specified in the analysis, but not all listings or sales are reported to MLS and these won’t be reflected in the data. “Homes” signifies real-property, single-household housing units: houses, condos, co-ops, townhouses, duets and TICs (but not mobile homes), as applicable to each market. City/town names refer specifically to the named cities and towns, unless otherwise delineated. Multi-county metro areas will be specified as such. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.

Many aspects of value cannot be adequately reflected in median and average statistics: curb appeal, age, condition, amenities, views, lot size, quality of outdoor space, “bonus” rooms, additional parking, quality of location within the neighborhood, and so on. How any of these statistics apply to any particular home is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by seasonality, “unusual” events, or changes in inventory and buying trends, as well as by changes in fair market value. The median sales price for an area will often conceal an enormous variety of sales prices in the underlying individual sales.

Dollar per Square Foot is based upon the home’s interior living space and does not include garages, unfinished attics and basements, rooms built without permit, patios, decks or yards (though all those can add value to a home). These figures are usually derived from appraisals or tax records, but are sometimes unreliable (especially for older homes) or unreported altogether. The calculation can only be made on those home sales that reported square footage.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

San Francisco County Real Estate, July 2022

Posted on by Julie Tsai

Leaning into Market Headwinds, Appreciation Rate Drops

The impacts of this year’s severe economic headwinds – soaring inflation and interest rates, stock market declines, fears of recession – on Bay Area real estate markets are accelerating. The first effect was on buyer demand (fewer buyers, offers and listings into contract), leading to changes in supply (more homes for sale, more price reductions), which began to alter buyer and seller psychology and the balance of power between them. Especially after one of the longest, most dramatic upcycles in history, the psychology, circumstances and plans of individual buyers and sellers shift unevenly in the early months of a transition as they try to make sense of changing market realities. Eventually statistics based on closed sales – prices, appreciation rates, overbidding, days on market – slowly start to adjust. Generally speaking, closed sales are lagging indicators of what occurred in the economy and market weeks and months earlier.

If stock market prices are like a jet skier on a triple-espresso, home prices are like a giant cargo ship, which decelerates and turns slowly. It took a few months from when the big economic changes began, but the high year-over-year appreciation rates of recent years are now dropping fast in Bay Area markets, though the degree of any actual, longer-term “correction” to prices, if it occurs, remains to be seen.

A correction is not a crash. The precipitating factor in the 2008 crash – tens of millions of households talked into home loans they couldn’t afford, forcing frantic sales during a recession – does not apply today. Indeed, mortgage payments as a percentage of income are close to all-time lows (and most homeowners’ mortgages are also at historically low rates). Outside the 2008 crash, market corrections over the last 4 decades typically ran from a simple flattening in appreciation, to price adjustments of 5% to 10% (relatively small compared to the appreciation rates which preceded them). It is far too early, with far too many factors at play, to make predictions.

An overheated market cooling or normalizing, slowing from an unsustainable rate of acceleration, does not necessarily imply a weak market by historical standards, even if the speed and scale of the change is startling. This report will review year-over-year changes in supply and demand, reflecting the significant adjustments occurring, but also longer-term trends to provide greater context to these recent changes.

Monthly data can be volatile, fluctuating according to a number of factors, including market seasonality. For example, in most Bay Area markets, it is not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in spring or early summer. It is best not to jump to definitive conclusions based on a few months of data: Longer-term data is more meaningful than short-term fluctuations.

Different regions and market segments are cooling at differing speeds and each region has unique conditions – and in the Bay Area, each home is relatively unique as well. But barring very special circumstances, markets across the Bay Area (and the country) can be expected to eventually move in roughly parallel directions because of the broad macroeconomic factors at play. Within this report is a link to a review of many of these factors. As of July 7, 2022, according to FHLMC, the average weekly mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate loan fell to 5.3% from 5.81% two weeks earlier.

Our reports are not intended to convince you regarding a course of action or to predict the future, but to provide, to the best of our ability, straightforward information and good-faith analysis to assist you in making your own informed decisions. Statistics should be considered very general indicators, and all numbers should be considered approximate. How they apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis.

Source: Compass

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis. These analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

JULIE TSAI LAW REALTY GROUP

JULIE TSAI LAW

650.799.8888

JULIE@JULIETSAILAW.COM

DRE #01339682

KRISTIN TSAI

408.605.80000

KRISTIN@JULIETSAILAW.COM

DRE #01294153

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